4G Smartphones Unit Share More Than Doubles in a Year, Capturing 58 Percent in Q2 2015

PR61488

NUREMBERG, Germany, Aug. 17 /PRN=KYODO JBN/ --

    - In Q2 2015 global smartphone sales value was up +8 percent year-on-year,

and unit sales were up +6 percent year-on-year.

    - 4G unit share was 58 percent globally in Q2 2015, up from 26 percent in

Q2 2014. This represents a unit growth of +129 percent year-on-year, with China

leading the global 4G ramp up.

    - Globally the unit share of smartphones with large screens (5"+) increased

to 48 percent in Q2 2015, up 5 percent from Q1 2015, and 17 percent from Q2

2014. China has the highest regional share of smartphones with large screens at

63 percent, followed by Developed APAC at 61 percent.

    - Average sales price (ASP) in USD declined -1 percent from Q1 to Q2 2015,

but it was up +3 percent on a year-on-year basis. GfK forecasts smartphone ASP

to decline by -1 percent year-on-year in 2015.

    Almost six in ten (58 percent) smartphones sold in Q2 2015 were 4G-enabled,

according to the latest global smartphone sales data from GfK. And with a major

operator launching 4G services in India at the start of this month, 4G is now

available in all key countries. GfK forecasts 4G smartphone penetration to

continue to grow at the expense of 3G, which is currently at 38 percent of

smartphone units and is forecast to decline by another percentage point by Q4

2015.

    Kevin Walsh, director of trends and forecasting at GfK comments, "India is

expected to be the largest contributor of absolute smartphone unit growth

globally this year. The main reason behind this is the currently low smartphone

penetration in the market together with a significant intensification of the

competition amongst the smartphone vendors, which will drive ASP erosion

allowing more affordable devices in the market."

    There are significant regional differences in 4G take up: price

polarization in N. America, saturation in W. European markets, local brands

tackling global players in India and China, and intense price competition in

emerging markets.

Walsh continues: "The first half of the year has seen macro events providing

headwinds to topline demand in regions like C&E. Europe, LATAM and China.

However, the underlying trend of consumers optimizing their digital consumption

by screen size, within affordability constraints, continues in all regions.

This trend can be seen from TV's down to smartphones. In smartphones, it

manifests in trends like price point polarization in the US, the rapid

screen-size increases in emerging markets and phablet market development. These

trends are forecast to continue to the end of year but we see new inflection

points and market drivers for 2016."      

    Here's how the global smartphone market stands today:

    Smartphone sales: Q2 2014 vs Q2 2015

                  Units sold (in mil)          Sales value (in billion USD)

                     　　Q2 2014  Q2 2015  % change  Q2 2014  Q2 2015  % change

    Latin America       25.0     25.2        1%      7.4      6.2      -16%

    Central & Eastern

    Europe              14.7     15.2        3%      3.7      3.2      -15%

    North America       40.3     44.4       10%     15.4     18.2       19%

    Emerging APAC       36.2     44.2       22%      7.1      7.5        5%

    Middle East & Africa  31.9   39.4       24%      9.5     10.5       11%

    Western Europe      27.8     30.3        9%     12.5     11.7       -7%

    China               98.6     88.7      -10%     22.8     26.8       17%

    Developed APAC      13.8     14.7        6%      7.6      8.3       10%

    Total global       288.3    302.1        5%     86.0     92.4        7%

    Source: GfK point-of-sales (POS) tracking data in 90+ markets, August 2015

    N. America - +10 percent year-on-year growth in unit sales in Q2 2015

    In this market, which like W. Europe is nearing saturation point, we see a

price polarization as sales of high ($500+) and low end ($0-250) devices grew

at the expense of mid-ranged devices ($250-500). Smartphones in the high end

captured 43 percent of smartphone unit share in Q2 2015, up from 38 percent in

2Q 2014. N. America and China were the only regions to see an increase in

high-end smartphone unit share on a year-on-year basis.

    W Europe - units up +9 percent year-on-year, but value and ASP fall

    Unit sales of smartphones grew +9 percent year-on-year in Q2 2015, but

sales value declined, due to a mix shift towards the low-end observed in the

quarter capturing almost 50 percent of the smartphone unit mix, up from 37

percent in Q2 2014. This region had very high LTE penetration levels in

smartphones in Q2 2015, with the Nordics taking the top three places: Norway at

90 percent, Denmark at 89 percent and Sweden at 88 percent.

    China - high-end demand increased +49% year-on-year in Q2 2015

    Unit sales fell -10 percent year-on-year in China to Q2 2015, which follows

the previous quarter's decline of -14 percent year-on-year. However, strong

demand for high-end smartphones ($500+) pushed smartphone value up +17 percent

year-on-year to $26.8bn in the quarter. The high-end smartphone market now

accounts for 17 percent of the market, up from 10 percent in Q2 2014 - and is

growing at the expense of the low-end. In 2015, GfK forecasts high-end unit

demand in China to grow +28 percent year-on-year, the strongest growth in this

price band of any region this year.

    C&E. Europe - a tale of two halves: rise and fall

    Despite unit sale declines of -11 percent year-on-year in Russia and -34

percent year-on-year in Ukraine driven by macroeconomic factors, the total

regional smartphone demand grew +3 percent year-on-year in Q2 2015, buoyed by

strong growth in Poland and Romania. GfK forecasts smartphone unit demand in

Russia to decline to -14 percent year-on-year, and -23 percent year-on-year in

Ukraine in 2015.

    Smartphones: 2014 sales vs 2015 forecast

                  Units sold (in mil)          Sales value (in billion USD)

                     　　CY 2014  CY 2015  % change  CY 2014  CY 2015  % change

    Latin America      108.5    111.2        2%     30.8     28.0       -9%

    Central & Eastern

    Europe              69.3     70.6        2%     17.2     14.4      -16%

    North America      177.3    194.5       10%     72.1     83.5       16%

    Emerging APAC      148.5    182.8       23%     28.2     30.5        8%

    Middle East & Africa 135.8  167.6       23%     39.6     44.0       11%

    Western Europe     127.9    138.0        8%     55.8     53.2       -5%

    China              392.8    371.7       -5%     99.0    108.7       10%

    Developed APAC      65.1     65.5        1%     38.1     38.1        0%

    Total global       1,225    1,302        6%    380.8    400.4        5%

    Source: GfK point-of-sales (POS) tracking data in 90+ markets for calendar

year (CY) 2014, and GfK forecasts for calendar year 2015. As at August 2015.

    Latin America - Brazilian economic slowdown starts a change of pace

    A significant slowing of growth in this region has been caused mainly by

the macroeconomic situation in Brazil. Q2 2015 saw +1 percent year-on-year unit

growth, compared to +28 percent in Q1 2015 and +72 percent rise in Q2 2014. In

2015, GfK forecasts total smartphone unit demand and sales value to drop in

Brazil for the first time ever, with unit sales expected to fall -3 percent

year-on-year, and sales value to decline -15 percent year-on-year.

    Emerging APAC - fierce competition in a growing Indian market

    In Emerging APAC, smartphone unit demand increased by +22 percent

year-on-year in Q2 2015, with all major countries growing. India in particular

has seen strong unit growth of +40 percent year-on-year, with local brands

accounting for three of the top five smartphone vendor spots in the quarter. A

number of Chinese smartphone brands have entered the Indian market this year,

intensifying the already fierce competition between international and local

vendors. The resulting price war is forcing ASPs down in a market where more

than 80 percent of sales are in the low-end. In Q2 2015, smartphone ASP in

India declined -12 percent year-on-year. In 2015, GfK forecasts smartphone

prices in India to fall -11 percent year-on-year and 4G unit demand to

more-than-triple, capturing 6 percent of the smartphone unit demand.

    Developed APAC - unit sales up +6 percent as Japan improves

    Unit sales in Developed APAC grew +6 percent year-on-year in Q2 2015,

driven by Japan (+15 percent), which benefitted from an easy comparison with

low sales in Q2 2014. GfK forecasts smartphone unit demand in the region to

grow by +1 percent year-on-year in 2015. A -6 percent smartphone demand decline

in S. Korea will be offset by Japan, which is forecast to see a +3 percent

year-on-year increase.

    Walsh concludes: "Weak macroeconomic trends will continue across a number

of major countries such as Brazil, Russia and China, but recoveries when they

come are often faster than expected especially for tech sectors. In addition,

we are still a long way from saturation in emerging market while adjacent

industries to the smartphone fuel the next round of growth, generally

complementing and in some cases cannibalizing smartphone growth."

    Note to editors

    GfK forecasts End Demand consumer purchases rather than manufacturer

shipments. Market sizes are built up by point-of-sale (POS) tracking in 90+

markets with updates on a weekly and monthly basis. For the US, GfK employs

proprietary market modeling and consumer research rather than POS to produce

its market forecasts. Values are based on unsubsidized retail pricing. Data is

available quarterly. The next data set will be available in late October 2015.

GfK continually works to ensure its panel data is as accurate a reflection of

the end market as possible. When a change is made to the number of participants

in our panel, GfK will amend historical data to better reflect the impacted end

market. For example, when a new retailer joins, the addition of their historic

sales may lead to slight adjustments to actual data.

    List of countries in the regions used in this release:

    Developed APAC       Emerging APAC

    Australia            India

    Hong Kong            Indonesia

    Japan                Kampuchea (Cambodia)

    New Zealand          Malaysia

    Singapore            Philippines

    South Korea          Thailand

    Taiwan               Vietnam

    Press contact

    Wes Rogers

    +44-203-287-3262 / +1-912-506-0869

    wes@greenfieldscommunications.com

SOURCE: GfK