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NEW YORK, Sept. 2, 2020 /PRNewswire=KYODO JBN/--

Consumer habits can take a lifetime to learn – but just a lockdown to lose.

According to PwC’s Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2020–2024,

[http://www.pwc.com/outlook] the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated and

amplified ongoing shifts in consumers’ behaviour, pulling forward digital

disruption and forging industry tipping points that wouldn’t have been reached

for many years. Digitalisation, one of the major forces

[https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/adapt.html] shaping all industries, has been

intensified by social distancing and mobility restrictions. As a result, the

entertainment and media (E&M) world in 2020 has become more remote, more

virtual, more streamed, more personal and – for now at least – more centred on

the home than anyone anticipated at the start of the year.

Industry growth contracts sharply…

The pandemic afflicting the world brought the global E&M industry’s growth to a

shuddering halt. As a result, we delayed publication of the Outlook by three

months so we could properly assess the pandemic’s impacts. The revised

projections for revenue growth underline why this was the right decision. Amid

a global recession, 2020 will see the sharpest fall in global E&M revenue in

the 21-year history of this research, with a decline of 5.6% from 2019 – more

than US$120bn in absolute terms. In 2009, the last year the global economy

shrank, total global E&M spending fell by just 3.0%.

…but remains robust in the longer term  

However, while the shockwaves from 2020 will continue to ripple through the

global economy, our forecast shows the industry’s fundamental growth trajectory

remains strong. In recent years, as media experiences have become ever more

central to our lives, global E&M growth has typically outpaced GDP. Just so,

after the challenges of 2020, we expect E&M to reassume its outperformance.  

Our projections show that in 2021, E&M spending will grow by 6.4%. Looking

across the five-year forecast period, from 2019 to 2024, we’re forecasting

overall revenue growth running at a 2.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Tipping point timelines accelerate

As is the case in the economy at large, the current pain in E&M is not evenly

shared around the industry. It’s most acute in segments that COVID-19 literally

shut down, such as events: live music, cinema and trade shows. Spending on

advertising likewise will fall by 13.4%. At the same time, the long-running

transition in newspapers from print to digital has been fast-forwarded several

years, cutting into papers’ print revenues, for example.

One result is that E&M segments are being transformed much earlier than was

originally projected. Take cinema box office versus subscription video on

demand (SVOD). As recently as 2015, box office revenue was three times SVOD.

SVOD revenue will overtake box office in 2020 and is projected to surge away in

the coming five years, reaching more than twice the size of box office in 2024.

Or consider the amount of data consumed on smartphones versus on fixed

broadband. Having taken a small lead in 2019, the smartphone is now set to pull

away as the leading individual device used by consumers to access the Internet

globally.

Winners and losers emerge…

So, how are the shifts accelerated by COVID-19 playing out in different

industry segments? With people staying at home, over-the-top (OTT) video has

seen global revenue surge by 26.0% in 2020. And it will keep rising strongly in

the coming years, almost doubling in size from US$46.4bn in 2019 to US$86.8bn

in 2024. The launch of the Disney+ streaming service in late 2019 could hardly

have been better timed: having projected between 60mn and 90mn paying

subscribers by 2024, Disney+ reached 60.5mn in early August 2020. Not

surprisingly given the rise of streaming, global data consumption is another

beneficiary of the digital acceleration powered by COVID-19. It will jump by

33.8% in 2020, and will more than double from 1.9 quadrillion megabytes (MB) in

2019 to 4.9 quadrillion MB in 2024.

At the other end of the scale are the segments that have been hit hardest. With

many cinemas closed and major movie releases delayed, we project that total

global cinema revenues will plunge by almost 66% this year. And it’s not likely

that lost ground will be recovered; our forecast is that in 2024, cinema

revenues for 2024 will be below their 2019 level. A further COVID-related

impact is that the ongoing decline in global newspapers and consumer magazines

has accelerated sharply in 2020, with overall revenues slumping by more than

14%, with consumer magazines suffering the most. That said, digital offers a

silver lining: a tipping point for consumer magazines in 2023 will see their

global revenue from digital advertising overtake that from print advertising.

Other important sectors will struggle to claw back the growth they lost in

2019. For example, the global advertising sector – which will fall by 13.4% in

2020 to US$559.5bn – is not expected to return to its 2019 level until 2022.

…as a vast industry reconfigures

Yet – perhaps counterintuitively – some “traditional” media has held its own

despite the effects of COVID-19 and digital acceleration. Amid reports of book

sales booming during lockdowns, total global consumer books revenue is

projected to continue its upward trajectory, rising at 1.4% compounded annually

between 2019 and 2024 to reach US$64.7bn. Significantly, technology is playing

an important role, with increasing use of smartphones and smart speakers

boosting uptake of audiobooks, enabling consumers to listen on-the-go.

Live physical events is another long-standing segment looking to adapt to the

reality of an accelerated digital world. With concert halls, exhibition centres

and stadiums closed for much of the year, some live events are using digital

platforms to stay connected to their audiences. In the UK, London’s Wireless

Festival teamed up with tech outfit MelodyVR in mid-2020 to deliver recorded

virtual reality performances from artists such as Cardi B, Travis Scott, and

Migos. More than 130,000 people from 34 countries attended virtually.  

A year that stands apart

Although 2020 has been a challenging and disruptive year for most industries –

including many segments of E&M – it is clear that consumer demand for the

varied and expanding array of media choices now on offer continues to grow. The

revenue figures in this year’s Outlook reflect the full force of the economic

downturns and digital acceleration triggered by COVID-19, but the longer-term

outlook for the E&M industry as a whole remains bright. That said, it’s also

clear that as normality slowly returns, there will continue to be winners and

losers.

Werner Ballhaus, Global Entertainment & Media Industry Leader at PwC, comments:

“It’s clear that COVID-19 has accelerated consumers’ transition to digital

consumption and triggered disruptive change – both positive and negative –

across many forms of media. Yet it’s equally evident that the E&M industry’s

underlying strengths and appeal to consumers remain as strong as ever. While

there will still be challenges for E&M companies as we move beyond the

pandemic, the digital migration that it has pulled forward will also generate

opportunities in all segments – not only those that have benefited from its

impacts to date.”

Press access to Global Entertainment & Media Outlook content online

To request press access to the online Global Entertainment & Media Outlook

2020–2024 content, contact Ashley Worley at ashley.worley@pwc.com. This access

will allow you to illustrate this and other media stories both by extracting

detail from the Global Entertainment & Media Outlook dataset and analysis at a

segment and territory level, and by creating charts on-screen that can be

exported for use with your stories.

About the Global Entertainment & Media Outlook

PwC’s 21st annual edition of the Global Entertainment & Media Outlook is a

comprehensive online source of global analysis for consumer and advertising

spending. With like-for-like, five-year historical and five-year forecast data

and commentary for 14 defined industry segments in 53 territories, the Outlook

makes it easy to compare and contrast consumer and advertising spending across

segments and territories. Find out more at www.pwc.com/outlook.

Segments covered by the Global Entertainment & Media Outlook

Books; Business-to-business; Cinema; Data consumption; Internet access;

Internet advertising; Music, radio and podcasts; Newspapers and consumer

magazines; OTT video; Out-of-home advertising; Traditional TV and home video;

TV advertising; Video games and esports; Virtual reality

About Global Entertainment & Media Outlook data

Much of the content in this press release is taken from data in the Global

Entertainment & Media Outlook 2020–2024. PwC continually seeks to update the

online Global Entertainment & Media Outlook data. Therefore, please note that

the data in this press release may not be aligned with the data found online.

The online Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2020–2024 is the most

up-to-date source of consumer and advertising spend data.

About PwC

At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems.

We’re a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 276,000 people who are

committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find

out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.

PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of

which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further

details.

Contact: Ashley Worley,

         PwC Global Corporate Affairs & Communications

         ashley.worley@pwc.com

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Source:  PwC