PR88775

PARIS, March 30, 2021/PRNewswire=KYODO JBN/ --

Investing tens of millions of dollars in works by Beeple or Banksy may seem

extravagant today, but acquiring the most expensive artworks is statistically a

winning strategy. Academic studies1 have shown that a masterpiece effect does

indeed exist on the art market: the most expensive works continue to gain more

value than the rest of the market. This is corroborated by the analysis

conducted by Artprice's valuation service – Artpricing – on the five

top-selling artworks in 1999.

"By following the five most expensive masterpieces of 1999, Artprice finds that

what was considered 'ex-orbitantly expensive' 22 years ago is no longer

considered as such today, explains thierry Ehrmann, President and Founder of

Artmarket.com and its Artprice department.

"Imagine that in the first quarter of 2021, you acquired the Boticelli

portrait, Beeple's NFT and the three paintings by Basquiat, Banksy and Picasso.

How much will these works be worth in a quarter of a cen-tury? The future will

tell us which are the best operations, but experience so far suggests that a

strategy of buying the most expensive works pays the highest dividends".

The 5 most expensive works at auction in 1999 vs. Artpricing's low estimates in

2021

1. Paul CEZANNE (1839-1906) - Curtain, jug and fruit bowl (c.1893-1894)  

1999: $60,502,500 - 2021: $120,000,000

2. Pablo PICASSO (1881-1973) - Woman seated in a garden (1938)

1999: $49,502,500  - 2021: $200,000,000

3. Pablo PICASSO (1881-1973) - Nude in a black armchair (1932)

1999: $45,102,500  - 2021: $115,000,000

4. Georges SEURAT (1859- 1891) - Paysage, l'ile de la Grande Jatte (1884)        

1999: $35,202,500 - 2021: $35,000,000

5. Paul CEZANNE (1839-1906) - Kettle and fruits (c.1888-1890)

1999: $29,476,000 - 2021: $60,000,000

Cezanne's still lifes have doubled in value

Curtain, jug and fruit bowl (c.1893-1894) was purchased for $60.5 million on 10

May 1999 in New York, well above Sotheby's estimated range ($25 - 35 million).

Twenty years later, this is still the record price for Paul Cézanne at auction.

But that doesn’t mean its value has contracted.

Six months later, a smaller still life, entitled Bouilloire et fruits (Kettle

and fruits) (1888-1890), fetched $29.5 million; it was among the top 5 fine art

auction results of 1999 and also substantially exceeded its estimated range

($15m - 20 million). Its current value is more or less known, since the work

sold on 13 May 2019 at Christie's New York for $59.3 million.

The price of Paul Cezanne's still lifes has thus doubled since 1999. This has

been confirmed by several other examples, including Still Life (c.1890)

purchased for $3.8 million at Sotheby's in New York on 11 November 1999 and

resold for $8.1 million on 14 November 2017 by the same auction house,

generat-ing a capital gain of +110%.

Resales within shorter periods suggest that Paul Cezanne's prices essentially

rose at the very beginning of the 21st century. Acquired for $18 million in

June 2000 at Christie's in London, his Nature morte aux fruits et pot de ginger

(c. 1895) sold for $37 million at Sotheby's New York on 7 November 2006.

In view of these results, it is reasonable to estimate that Cezanne's Curtain,

jug and fruit bowl (c.1893-1894) could fetch around $120 to 130 million today,

while the value of his Kettle and fruits painting (c.1888-1890) is probably

still around $60 million (its sale price in May 2019).

Picasso still more expensive, but Seurat's values look flat

Woman seated in a garden (1938) is one of Picasso's best paintings not yet

owned by a museum and it could well be worth over $200 million today. By way of

comparison, a painting of equal importance, Women of Algiers (Version 'O')

(1955) was acquired for $32 million in November 1997 and resold for $179

million in 2015.

Nude in a Black Armchair (1932) purchased in 1999 has a twin work on the

market: same title, same year of creation, same dimensions, same subject (one

could be mistaken for thinking they were the same painting). However, in May

2010, the price of this twin work reached $106.5 million. It therefore seems

reasonable to estimate the current value of each of the two works at around

$120 - $150 million.

On the other hand, the value of Georges Seurat's Paysage, Ile de la Grande

Jatte (1884) has probably not changed much in 22 years. The work still holds

the artist's auction record, but unlike Paul Cezanne's still lifes, which have

doubled in value, recent Seurat results suggest the value of this painting

hasn’t evolved that much.

In May 2018, La rade de Grandcamp (1885), a canvas of the same dimensions as

Paysage, Ile de la Grande Jatte (1984) and of the same quality, reached $34

million at Christie's in New York. This result suggests that collector demand

for Seurat's works has remained roughly constant over the past 22 years.

In conclusion, the combined purchase value of the five top results of 1999 was

$219.8 million, and, ac-cording to the analysis conducted by Artprice's

Artpricing service, the current low estimate for the value of this group of

works is around $530 million.

Images :

[https://imgpublic.artprice.com/img/wp/sites/11/2021/03/1-Artmarket-Artprice-Evo

lution-of-the-portfolio-1999-vs-2021.png]

[https://imgpublic.artprice.com/img/wp/sites/11/2021/03/2-Paul-Cezanne-Rideau-cr

uchon-et-compotier.png]

1. Renneboog L. & Spaenjers C. (2009). Buying Beauty: On Prices and Returns in

the Art Market. Discus-sion Paper 2009-004, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and

Economic Center.

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