PR92077

LONDON, October 7, 2021, /PRNewswire=KYODO JBN/--

Today marks the launch of the second Ecological Threat Report (ETR) from the

international think tank, the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP)

[https://www.economicsandpeace.org/].

Key results

- Eleven of 15 countries with the worst environmental threat scores are

currently classified as being in conflict. Another four are classified as at

high risk of substantial falls in peace, highlighting the relationship between

resource degradation and conflict.

- Half of the world's population will live in the 40 least peaceful countries,

by 2050. This will be an increase of 1.3 billion people from 2020 levels.

- New global poll data reveals only 23% of China's citizens see climate change

as a serious threat making it the 7th least concerned country.

- Global food insecurity has increased by 44% since 2014, affecting 30.4% of

the world's population in 2020, and is likely to rise further.  

- COVID-19 has increased food insecurity and prevented refugees from returning

home.

- With conflict having cost the global economy $600 billion in 2020, the ETR

shows that COP26 negotiations need to approve resilience funding to ecological

hotspots before drivers of conflict intensify.

The ETR analyses a broad range of indicators associated with ecological risk

including food and water availability, population growth and societal

resilience, to better understand the countries most at risk of experiencing

significant deteriorations in peace.  

Conflict and ecological threats

The main finding from the ETR 2021 is that a cyclic relationship exists between

ecological degradation and conflict. It is a vicious cycle, whereby degradation

of resources leads to conflict, leading to further resource degradation. Eleven

of the 15 countries with the worst ETR scores are currently experiencing

conflict. Another four are classified as at high risk of substantial falls in

peace. Many more countries are likely to fall into conflict unless these cycles

are reversed.

To reverse these cycles both the ecological environment and societal resilience

need to improve, which requires a systemic approach. This means a reappraisal

of how development is currently undertaken.

Underlining the severity of the finding, the number of malnourished people has

been steadily rising since 2016 and is forecast to rise by 343 million people

by 2050, creating another driver for conflict. Food insecurity has also

increased to 30.4% of the world's population, according to FAO.[1] This is the

reversal of a trend spanning decades which has seen undernourishment steadily

improve. Malnutrition is worse for men, especially in Africa where twice as

many males suffer from thinness than females. Stunting is also worse in boys

than girls.

Three areas of the world suffer from the greatest risk of societal collapse as

a result of food insecurity, lack of water, population growth and the impacts

of natural disasters. The Sahel-Horn belt of Africa, from Mauritania to

Somalia; the Southern African belt, from Angola to Madagascar; the Middle East

and Central Asian belt, from Syria to Pakistan. These areas are in urgent need

of attention.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest prevalence of food insecurity, with 66% of

the population deemed food insecure. By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa's population

is projected to be 2.1 billion, a 90% increase from today's population. It also

has the poorest measures of societal resilience.

The Sahel is the next focal point for potential societal collapse as

demonstrated by the recent proliferation of radical Islamic groups. Niger and

Burkina Faso are currently among the world's least peaceful countries (measured

by the GPI) and are amongst the worst scorers on the ETR.

Ecological threat and migration

The ETR has found that more than 1.26 billion people live in 30 hotspot

countries, suffering from both extreme ecological risk and low levels of

resilience. These countries are least likely to be able to mitigate and adapt

to new ecological threats, which is likely to cause mass displacement.

The number of people displaced by conflict has been steadily rising with 23.1

million people from hotspot countries living outside their home country in

2020. Europe was hosting the largest number of displaced people from hotspot

countries, at 6.6 million. These numbers are likely to increase by tens of

millions as ecological degradation and climate change takes hold.

Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics and

Peace [https://www.economicsandpeace.org/], said:

"COP26 provides an ideal opportunity for leaders to recognise that the

ecological threats of today need to be addressed before climate change

substantially accelerates them, costing trillions more to address.

"The solution to these problems lies in a more systemic approach, partially

through the conscious integration of development agencies. The problems of

conflict, food and water insecurity, displacement, business development,

health, education and indeed climate change are interrelated, and the

interconnectedness of these relationships must be recognised for them to best

be addressed."

Attitudes towards climate change

New polling of over 150,000 people in 142 countries has found that the most

significant emitters of carbon dioxide are countries where their citizens are

least concerned with climate change. They are also some of the most populous

countries in the world. Only 23% of China's citizens see climate change as a

very serious threat, while India recorded only 35%. The global average was

49.8%, with men slightly more concerned than women by 2%.[2]

Without the buy in of the citizens of these countries, climate change action is

unlikely to be effective.

Spanish and Portuguese speaking countries scored the highest and occupied 12 of

the 20 top spots. Countries immersed in conflict scored poorly, with Yemen,

Ethiopia, Egypt, and Myanmar having the worst scores.

The United States scored near the global average at 49.2%, while the United

Kingdom had a relatively high score at 69.9%.

The greatest gender disparity was in the Scandinavian countries of Norway,

Sweden, and Finland where women scored higher than men by 21%, 18% and 13%

respectively.

Food insecurity

Since 2014, the number of people without access to adequate food globally has

risen every year, increasing by 44%. Increases in food insecurity are

associated with deteriorations in peace.

By 2050, the global demand for food is expected to increase by 50%.

Due to lockdowns and border closures, COVID-19 has amplified food insecurity

further and will likely have a long-lasting negative impact on world hunger due

to stagnant economic growth.

Water stress

The ETR reveals that by 2040 over 5.4 billion people will live in countries

facing extreme water stress. Lebanon and Jordan are the countries most at risk.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the most countries with the lowest levels of social

resilience combined with the highest population growth. 70% of its population

suffer from inadequate access to safely managed water, which will be compounded

by high population growth.

Building ecological resilience

IEP worked with 60 leading policy stakeholders to develop policy

recommendations that promote global ecological resilience. This included the

recommendation to combine health, food, water, refugee relief, finance,

agricultural and business development into one integrated agency in high-risk

areas. This recognises the systemic nature of both the problems and solutions,

allowing for a more efficient allocation of resources and faster decision

making based on the geographical area of need.

Although military interventions are necessary, they will not solve the

underlying ecological issues driving the conflicts. The lesson from Afghanistan

is that without well planned and executed development spending, obtaining peace

is impossible. The recent fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban highlights the

limits of the military and exposes a poor spending strategy. It is estimated

that the total US federal expenditure on Afghanistan cost $2.261 trillion -

$50,000 for each Afghan citizen currently living in the country. This is more

than 100 times the average Afghan's yearly income.

For more information, visit www.economicsandpeace.org

*The 11 countries with the worst ETR score are Afghanistan, Niger, Madagascar,

Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi, Guatemala, Mozambique, Pakistan, Angola and Yemen.

NOTES TO EDITORS

About the Ecological Threat Report (ETR)

This is the second edition of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), which covers

178 independent states and territories. The ETR is unique in that it combines

measures of resilience with the most comprehensive ecological data available to

shed light on the countries least likely to cope with extreme ecological

shocks, now and into the future.

Methodology

The ETR includes the most recent and respected scientific research on

population growth, water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones,

and rising temperature. In addition, the report uses IEP's Positive Peace

framework to identify areas where the resilience is unlikely to be strong

enough to adapt or cope with these future shocks. The report draws on a wide

variety of data sources, including World Bank, World Resources Institute, Food

and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations, the United Nations Human

Rights Council, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, The Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, International Organization for Migration and IEP.

About the Institute for Economics and Peace

IEP is an international and independent think tank dedicated to shifting the

world's focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human

well-being and progress. It has offices in Sydney, Brussels, New York, The

Hague, Mexico City and Harare.

(1)  Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations

(2)  Analysis IEP, source data Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll

Source: Institute of Economics and Peace