New Shell Scenarios Sharpen Focus on Future for Society, Energy

AsiaNet 52250

THE HAGUE, The Netherlands, Feb. 28, 2013/PRN=KYODO JBN/--

    Shell today released new scenarios that explore two possible ways the 21st

century could unfold, with dramatically different implications for society and

the world's energy system. One scenario sees cleaner-burning natural gas

becoming the most important energy source globally by the 2030s and early

action to limit carbon dioxide emissions. The other sees solar becoming the top

source by about 2070, but with slower action to address the threat of climate

change.

    The New Lens Scenarios, which look at trends in the economy, politics and

energy as far ahead as 2100, underscore the critical role that government

policies could play in shaping the future.    

    "These scenarios show how the choices made by governments, businesses and

individuals in the next few years will have a major impact on the way the

future unfolds," said Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser.

    "They highlight the need for business and government to find new ways to

collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner

energy, and improve energy efficiency."  

    With the world's population headed toward 9.5 billion by 2060 and the rapid

growth of emerging economies lifting millions of people out of poverty for the

first time, the scenarios project that world energy demand could double over

the next 50 years.

    Called Mountains and Oceans, Shell's scenarios explore two plausible future

pathways for society. Each scenario dives into the implications for the pace of

global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and

the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.  The scenarios look further into the

future than many other outlooks and highlight some surprising possible

developments. Both see global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) dropping to

near zero by 2100. One factor is increasing use of technology that takes CO2

out of the atmosphere, for instance by burning biomass to produce electricity,

and then storing emissions underground. Although the Oceans scenario sees a

dramatic increase in solar power, it also envisions greater fossil fuel use and

higher total CO2 emissions over the century than the Mountains scenario, which

will likely have more impact on the world's climate.        

    The scenarios highlight areas of public policy likely to have the greatest

influence on the development of cleaner fuels and renewables, improvements in

energy efficiency and on moderating greenhouse gas emissions. They include:

     - Measures to promote the development of compact, energy-efficient cities,

particularly in Asia and other rapidly urbanising parts of the world.

     - Mandates for greater efficiency in areas such as transportation and

buildings.   

     - Policies to encourage the safe development of the world's abundant

supply of cleaner-burning natural gas -- and to promote its wider use in power

generation, transport and other areas.

     - A price on CO2 emissions and other incentives to speed the adoption of

technologies to manage emissions, particularly carbon capture and storage

(CCS).   

    Mountains

    The Mountains scenario imagines a world of more moderate economic

development in which policy plays an important role in shaping the world's

energy system and environmental pathway. Cleaner-burning natural gas becomes

the backbone of the world's energy system, in many places replacing coal as a

fuel for power generation and seeing wider use in transport.

    A profound shift in the transportation sector sees global demand for oil

peaking in about 2035. By the end of the century, cars and trucks powered by

electricity and hydrogen could dominate the road. Technology to capture carbon

dioxide emissions from power stations, refineries and other industrial

installations becomes widely used, helping to reduce CO2 emissions from the

power sector to zero by 2060. Another factor is the growth of nuclear power in

global electricity generation. Its market share increases by around 25% in the

period to 2060."

    With these changes to the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions begin to

fall after 2030. Nevertheless, emissions remain on a trajectory to overshoot

the target of limiting global temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius.  

    Oceans

    The Oceans scenario envisions a more prosperous, volatile world with an

energy landscape shaped mostly by market forces and civil society, with

government policy playing a less prominent role. Public resistance and the slow

adoption of both policies and technology limit the development of nuclear power

and restrict the growth of natural gas outside North America. Coal remains

widely used in power generation until at least the middle of the century.

    Without strong support from policymakers, carbon capture and storage

catches on slowly. By mid-century CCS captures only about 10% of emissions,

growing to about 25% in 2075. This slow uptake is the main reason electricity

generation becomes carbon-neutral some 30 years later in the Oceans scenario

than in the Mountains scenario.      

    Higher energy prices encourage the development of hard-to-reach oil

resources, as well as the expansion of biofuel production. Oil demand continues

to grow through the 20s and 30s, reaching a plateau after 2040. Liquid fuels

still account for about 70% of road passenger travel by mid-century.

    High prices also spur strong efficiency gains and the development of solar

power. By 2070, solar photovoltaic panels become the world's largest primary

source of energy. Wind energy expands at a slower pace, due to public

opposition to large installations of wind turbines.  Elevated demand for coal

and oil, a lack of support for CCS and less natural gas development outside of

North America contributes to about 25% higher total greenhouse gas emissions

than in the Mountains scenario.    

    To explore Mountains and Oceans in more detail, download Shell's New Lens

Scenarios at http://www.shell.com/scenarios.

    Shell has a 40-year history of using scenario planning to explore possible

future landscapes and aid strategic decision-making. The latest publication

continues a tradition of sharing summaries of the scenarios to contribute to

the public debate about possible ways to tackle some of society's long-term

challenges.  

    Notes to Editors

    Royal Dutch Shell plc

    Royal Dutch Shell plc is incorporated in England and Wales, has its

headquarters in The Hague and is listed on the London, Amsterdam, and New York

stock exchanges.  Shell companies have operations in more than 100 countries

and territories with businesses including oil and gas exploration and

production; production and marketing of liquefied natural gas and gas to

liquids; manufacturing, marketing and shipping of oil products and chemicals

and renewable energy projects. For further information, visit

http://www.shell.com

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    SOURCE: Royal Dutch Shell plc