Control Risks Releases Top 5 Risks for Business in 2020

AsiaNet 82022

LONDON, Dec. 10 2019 /PRNewswire=KYODO JBN

In 2020, fractious geopolitics, activism and cyber warfare meet economic

anxiety and world leaders who can’t see further than the next crisis.

Businesses will need courage and self-reliance, says Control Risks.

Fractious geopolitics in a US election year, a rising tide of global activism

and a new level of cyber warfare are among the Top 5 risks for business in

2020, published today by Control Risks, the specialist global risk consultancy.

Charged with managing this perilous outlook is a crop of political leaders

without strategies, who can’t see further than the next crisis.

Businesses will need every ounce of courage, self-reliance and resilience to

cope. The pace of events will be in the hands of twitchy protagonists. Business

leaders must find strategies for an intensely tactical world.

“Global trends are now more set against the interests of international

businesses than they have been for many years,” comments Control Risks CEO,

Nick Allan.

“Populism, activism, protectionism, sanctions and political disruption remain

the canvas on to which business tries to build global markets and supply

chains. It has not been easy in 2019 and it’s going to get harder next year,”

Allan adds.

The global Top 5 Risks for Business in 2020

The Top 5 risks are released as part of Control Risks’ annual RiskMap report, a

global risk forecast for business leaders and policy makers across the world,

published today.

1. Geopolitics and the US campaign trail

The US election campaign will have a palpable impact on geopolitics in 2020.

The drama of the campaign trail combined with the disruption of the impeachment

process will reverberate through America’s global actions. Will stunt diplomacy

try to distract from impeachment? Would a deal with China help or hurt

President Trump’s pitch to post-industrial workers? Will North Korea, Iran, and

even Islamic State try to exploit the election cycle?  How allies and

adversaries hedge against the most ideological election in 40 years will

heavily influence the geopolitical risk landscape for business in 2020.

2. The activist society passes judgement

Across the world, social pressures and coordinated activism around issues like

environmental protection, political and human rights, inequality and privacy

are demanding more and more from business. In the street, in shareholder

meetings and in your company, the activist society will bang ever harder on the

boardroom table in 2020. For companies, paralysis looms as myriad movements

make demands that are increasingly loud and challenging. This uncodified morass

of social, moral and political accountability will consume any company caught

unawares. Conversely, companies that get this right will be embraced. Being

ethical is not enough. Being compliant is not enough. Know what to stay ahead

of in 2020.

3. Cyber warfare hits a new level

Cyber threats in 2020 will align as never before to provoke a high impact,

cyber-enabled assault on critical infrastructure. Western deterrence has failed

to stem the tide and hostile actors are using ever harder methods. The US will

retaliate in ways that show the world it cares. In theatres of strategic

conflict, unpalatable military measures will give way to cyber-attacks. And so

will begin a new cycle of escalation: the west’s cyber-capable rivals and their

proxies will raise their game, with unpredictable consequences. If leading

companies are attaining credible cyber resilience, national infrastructures

across the globe are not and present the main vulnerability in the

international cyber conflict.

4. Economic anxiety meets political fragility

Even the most optimistic forecasts say global economic growth in 2020 will be

dismally low or, as our partners at Oxford Economics put it, “grinding.” This,

before any account of an economic shock that could shake an uneasy global

economy. If global GDP takes a turn for the worse, we cannot expect a

fragmented world to craft a coordinated policy response.  Will countries riven

by polarisation rally in the face of economic hardship? And what of economies

dependent on resource riches, or those which still haven’t fully recovered from

2008? In the event of a downturn – or even in the best of cases – which

countries will survive, and which will go to the wall? Take a global tour of

economic anxiety and political fragility.

5. Leaders without strategies

At the helm of some of the world’s most important countries is a crop of

leaders who can’t see further than the next crisis. For them, tactics will

trump strategy. 2020 is shaping up to be a year when the brakes on incident

escalation are absent. This is a world where resilience at the state level is

weak, and long-term solutions take too much time to find. Whether it’s a global

trade war, a cyber attack or a regional border skirmish, the pace of events is

in the hand of twitchy, anxious protagonists. Business will need a strategy for

an intensely tactical world.

The RiskMap 2020 website will be live from Monday, 9 December 2019. The world

map with countries’ political and security risk forecasts will be available to

download here: www.controlrisks.com/riskmap

For broadcast interviews:

Control Risks is equipped with an in-house Globelynx studio for live or

pre-recorded broadcast interviews. To arrange an interview with one of our

London-based experts, please contact communicationsemea@controlrisks.com

Note to Editors:

About Control Risks

Control Risks is a specialist global risk consultancy that helps to create

secure, compliant and resilient organisations in an age of ever-changing risk.

Working across disciplines, technologies and geographies, everything we do is

based on our belief that taking risks is essential to our clients’ success. We

provide our clients with the insight to focus resources and ensure they are

prepared to resolve the issues and crises that occur in any ambitious global

organisation. We go beyond problem-solving and provide the insight and

intelligence needed to realise opportunities and grow.

www.controlrisks.com

For further information please contact:

Caspar Leighton

Global Content Director

+44 (0)7712 391 228

caspar.leighton@controlrisks.com

Source: Control Risks