IEP's 2017 Global Terrorism Index: Terrorism Deaths Down 22% Compared to 2014 Peak as Radical Islamist Extremism is on the Retreat
IEP's 2017 Global Terrorism Index: Terrorism Deaths Down 22% Compared to 2014 Peak as Radical Islamist Extremism is on the Retreat
PR70974
LONDON, Nov. 15, 2017, /PRNewswire=KYODO JBN/--
For the second consecutive year, the total number of deaths is down with a 13%
YOY reduction compared to 2015.
Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria, four of the five countries most
affected by terrorism, recorded 33% fewer deaths.
The largest decrease occurred in Nigeria where terrorism deaths attributed to
Boko Haram fell by 80% in 2016.
ISIL defies the positive trend with 50% more people killed by the group than in
2015, resulting in their deadliest year with over 9,000 deaths, primarily in
Iraq.
In 2016, OECD countries experienced the highest number of deaths since 2001,
but so far 2017 marks a significant reduction compared to 2016 coinciding with
ISIL's diminishing capacity at its core.
Terrorist attacks are becoming less sophisticated and more likely to be
directed against civilian targets in the OECD, such as attacks using vehicles;
but improvements in counterterrorism strategies foiled more plots in 2016 than
2015 and 2014.
For the second consecutive year, deaths from terrorism have decreased according
to the 2017 Global Terrorism Index (GTI). There was a 22% decrease to 25,673
deaths compared to the peak of terror activity in 2014 when over 32,500 people
were killed.
(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20141118/717092 )
The downward trend highlights a turning point in the fight against radical
Islamist extremism with four of the five countries most affected by terrorism,
Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria, recording an improvement. The largest
reduction occurred in Nigeria where deaths attributed to Boko Haram decreased
by 80% in 2016, as the terror group faced mounting pressure from the
Multinational Joint Task Force.
Iraq was the only country of the five most affected by terrorism to record an
increase in deaths, primarily driven by ISIL as it increased suicide attacks
and assaults on civilians to compensate for territorial losses. Total deaths
attributed to ISIL increased by 50% in 2016, marking the group's deadliest year
ever. The majority of the deaths occurred in Iraq, which accounted for 40% of
the increase.
The yearly report, developed by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) based
on the Global Terrorism Database by the National Consortium for the Study of
Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) as well as other sources, provides
the most comprehensive resource on global terrorist trends.
The report finds that while the global numbers of deaths and attacks recorded a
decrease in 2016, there are still worrying trends as more countries than at any
other time in the past 17 years experienced at least one death from terrorism.
In total 77 countries experienced at least one terrorism death, up from 65 in
2016 - resulting in the overall global GTI score, registering the impact of
terrorism, deteriorating by 4% from 2015.
Steve Killelea, Executive Chairman of IEP, said, "This year's report marks a
landmark moment in the fight against radical Islamist extremism. Four of the
five most severely affected countries, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and
Nigeria, registered significant reductions in the number of deaths. Together,
Boko Haram, the Taliban and al Qa'ida killed 6,000 fewer people in 2016 than in
2015. The decline of Boko Haram in Nigeria is having a positive ripple effect
with Cameroon, Chad and Niger collectively recording 75% fewer deaths.
"Although these gains are encouraging, there are still serious areas of
concern. The future stability of Syria and Iraq will play a critical role in
determining the impact of terrorism in the years ahead. In Iraq, the government
will face challenges in maintaining a lasting peace through an inclusive
society that avoids fuelling sectarian violence. The evolving threat of ISIL
also remains. While it has suffered significant setbacks to its territory,
military strength and funding, the potential for hardened fighters to leave and
join new permutations in other conflict areas around the world is very real.
OECD countries face this challenge as foreign fighters return from Syria and
Iraq with ISIL directed attacks increasing from 11 countries in 2015 to 15 in
2016."
European countries and other developed nations continued to record a negative
trend with ISIL's activity the primary driver. Excluding the September 11
attacks, 2016 was the deadliest year for terrorism in OECD countries[1] since
1988However, the military response to ISIL and its diminishing capacity has
coincided with a significant reduction in deaths, from 265 to 82, in the first
half of 2017 when compared to the full year in 2016. This indicates a
potentially positive future trend.
Improvements in counterterrorism strategies have foiled more attacks than in
previous years. This, in part, reflects a greater resource allocation for
counterterrorism as well as more effective strategies. Two in 10 attacks were
prevented in 2014 and 2015 while three in 10 attacks were foiled in 2016. The
type of attack affects the likelihood of success in preventing it. Nearly half
of all attacks using bombings and explosions were foiled, but low cost,
low-tech attacks, such as using vehicles are harder to prevent. Since the July
2016 Nice truck attack, at least 13 other attacks using vehicles have been
carried out in OECD countries including the 31 October 2017 attack in
Manhattan. Eleven of these attacks have explicitly targeted civilians with at
least six targeting crowds.
A key finding of the research is that 99% of all terrorism deaths in the past
17 years have occurred in countries that either are in conflict or have high
levels of political terror. Political terror signifies the presence of
extra-judicial killings, torture and imprisonment without trial. This finding
demonstrates the risks associated with counterterrorism strategies that can
exacerbate existing grievances that fuel extremism and terrorism. Turkey and
Egypt recorded some of the biggest increases in deaths following major
government crackdowns.
Terrorist attacks and deaths are still highly concentrated with 94% of all
terrorist deaths taking place in the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan
Africa and South Asia. Central America and the Caribbean is the least affected
region with only 12 deaths, or less than 0.4% of the total.
The global economic impact of terrorism in 2016 was US$84 billion, a reduction
of nearly US$6 billion compared to 2015. Despite the high absolute figure, the
economic impact of terrorism is small compared to other major forms of
violence. The economic impact of terrorism amounts to just 1% of the total
global economic impact of violence, which reached $14.3 trillion in 2016.
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1. OECD analysis excludes Turkey and Israel as the terrorist threat in these
countries has deep-rooted historical origins.
The full GTI 2017 report and interactive map are available at:
http://www.visionofhumanity.org
Follow: @GlobPeaceIndex #TerrorismIndex
Like: www.facebook.com/globalpeaceindex
SOURCE: Institute for Economics and Peace
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