PR98322

Institute for Economics and Peace Report: 750 million globally now affected by undernourishment, with Russia-Ukraine War and inflationary pressures expected to worsen crisis

LONDON, Oct. 19, 2022, /PRNewswire=KYODO JBN/--

Today marks the annual launch of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), produced

by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), featuring exclusive research

from the Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll.

Key Findings:

Ecological threats, such as rapid population growth, water risk, and food

insecurity will be exacerbated by climate change, causing mass migration and

conflict

56% of 228 countries and territories monitored by the ETR are facing extreme

ecological threat

The world's 40 least peaceful countries will increase their population by 1.3

billion by 2050, representing 49% of the world's population

Projections to 2050 show that much of sub-Saharan Africa will be unsustainable,

with 95% population growth projected, currently 738 million people lack

adequate food and all but one country facing extreme water stress

In 2021, almost 92% of the world's undernourished people lived in low to very

low peace countries

Since 2019, the world's concern over climate change has decreased by 1.5%.

Citizens in three of the four biggest polluting countries have a low level of

concern – China, India, and Russia

Air pollution costs the world $8.1 trillion annually, or 6.1% of global GDP,

claiming 6-9 million lives

Each year, the ETR analyses ecological threats to assess which countries are

most at risk from conflict, civil unrest and displacement caused by ecological

degradation, and climate-related events. The main finding from the ETR is that

without concerted action, current levels of ecological degradation will worsen,

intensifying existing conflicts, becoming a catalyst for new conflicts, and

increasing forced migration.

The report analyses ecological risk, societal resilience, and peace for 228

countries and territories, 3,638 administrative districts, and 250 cities,

assessing their ability to manage their challenges between now and 2050. It

also highlights 27 'hotspot' countries1, home to an estimated 768 million

people, which face the worst ecological threats and have the lowest societal

resilience. 23 of the 27 are in sub-Saharan Africa and MENA.

Food stress

41 countries are currently facing severe food insecurity, impacting economic

development, public health, and social harmony, with 830 million people at

risk, with 89% residing in sub-Saharan-Africa, followed by MENA with 49

million. Severe food insecurity describes a state where an individual has

exhausted their food supplies, and their health, nutrition, and well-being are

at serious risk.

The number of undernourished people has risen consistently since 2017,

increasing by 35% in 2021 to over 750 million people. Undernourishment, where a

person's habitual food consumption is medically insufficient to sustain them,

is expected to deteriorate due to increasing ecological degradation, rising

inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2021, almost 92% of the world's

undernourished people lived in low to very low peace countries.

Conflict and Water Stress

Food insecurity is connected to water stress, defined as 'when more than 20% of

the population do not have access to clean drinking water'; without adequate

water capture it is impossible to provide sufficient food. More than 1.4

billion people across 83 countries now face extreme water stress. Several

European countries are projected to experience water stress by 2040, including

Greece, Italy, Netherlands, and Portugal.  

Most of the countries expected to suffer increases in water stress between now

and 2050 are found in sub-Saharan Africa and MENA. Currently, all but one

country in sub-Saharan Africa faces extreme water stress.

Megacities: Rising pollution and population

There are currently 33 megacities2, with the number expected to increase to 47

by 2050. The megacities most likely to face the harshest challenges are

Kinshasa, Nairobi, and Lagos. Over 60% of megacities are in low peace

countries. They have the highest population growth rates, poorest sanitation,

higher levels of petty and organised crime, and pervasive air pollution.

However, they lack the financial capacity and governance to adequately cope

with these challenges. The most challenged cities have the highest population

growth, highlighting the precarious relationship with unsustainability.

Air pollution costs the world $8.1 trillion annually - or 6.1% of global GDP -

claiming between 6-9 million lives. Nine cities have over 20 times the maximum

level of air pollution recommended by WHO, including Lahore, Kabul and Agra.

The 40 lowest peace countries are projected to increase their population by 1.3

billion, making up 49% of the world's population. The countries facing the

worst ecological threats will see the biggest increases, with sub-Saharan

Africa's population projected to increase by 95%.

Steve Killelea, Founder and Executive Chairman of IEP, said:

"As we approach COP27, this report is a timely reminder that the costs of many

of the existing ecological challenges will only be amplified by climate change.

The world's current approach to the countries suffering the worst

climate-related issues is not working; ecological threats are increasing and

have systemic causes that require systemic solutions.

Governments and international agencies must invest in building long-term

resilience to avert future ecological destruction, forced migration and

conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war highlights the effects of conflict on forced

migration, with 12 – 14 million Ukrainians currently displaced in neighbouring

countries. Developmental programmes should focus on micro enterprises which

capture water, improve agriculture and on value-added manufacturing. This will

improve the lives of the people who are suffering the most."

Climate Concerns

Since 2019 the world has become less concerned about climate change, dropping

by 1.5% to 48.7%.3 Regions exposed to the highest levels of ecological threat

are on average the least concerned with climate change, with sub-Saharan Africa

and South Asia ranking war, terrorism, crime, violence and livelihoods as of

greater concern.

Singapore recorded the largest fall in serious concern for climate change, with

a decline of almost a quarter between 2019 and 2021 to 49.4%. 13 countries in

Europe recorded a decline in concern for climate change, with the largest in

Belgium. The populations of both Singapore and Belgium were more likely to be

concerned about road safety and their health than climate change.

In China, the world's largest polluter, only 20% of citizens believed climate

change was a serious concern, falling 3% since 2019, one of the lowest in the

world. The third largest polluter, India, scored poorly at 39% but improved by

3.7%. The US, the world's second largest polluter, showed slightly more concern

than the global average, at 51.5%.

Natural Disasters & Mass Migration

The impact of natural disasters is decided by a country's level of resilience.

Asia-Pacific is the region most impacted by natural disasters, followed by

sub-Saharan Africa, and Central America and the Caribbean. Flooding is the most

common natural disaster globally, with 5,079 incidents recorded since 1981.

Over the last decade, the average global cost of natural disasters has been

$200 billion per annum. This is four times higher than in the 1980s.

With natural disasters becoming more frequent, communities will struggle to

recover before the next one occurs. This can lead to forced mass migration.

Destination countries in the EU, included Germany, Sweden, Austria, and Greece

took over a million refugees in 2021.

In 2021, countries that experienced the highest internal displacements from

conflict and natural disasters included Syria, Ethiopia, DRC, Afghanistan, and

South Sudan.

For more information, visit economicsandpeace.org

[https://www.economicsandpeace.org/] and visionofhumanity.org

[https://www.visionofhumanity.org/].

NOTES TO EDITORS

1The ETR 2022 'hotspot' countries

1.Burundi

2.Central African Republic

3.Chad

4.Republic of the Congo

5.Somalia

6.South Sudan

7.Uganda

8.Yemen

9.Afghanistan

10.Angola

11.Cameroon

12.DRC

13.Equatorial Guinea

14.Eritrea

15.Guinea

16.Guinea-Bissau

17.Haiti

18.Iraq

19.Nigeria

20.Syria

21.Zimbabwe

22.Libya

23.Mali

24.Mauritania

25.Sudan

26.Tajikistan

27.Venezuela

2Megacities are cities with a population of over 10 million.

3 The Lloyd's Register Foundation World Risk Poll is the first global study of

perceptions and experiences of risk to people's safety. The findings of the

2021 World Risk Poll are based on over 125,000 interviews conducted by Gallup

in 121 countries.  The ETR publishes exclusive data from the Poll – these are

the responses to the question "Do you think that climate change is a very

serious threat to the people in this country in the next 20 years?".

About the Ecological Threat Register (ETR)

This is the 3rd edition of the ETR which covers 228 independent states and

territories. The ETR is unique in that it combines measures of resilience with

the most comprehensive ecological data available to shed light on the countries

least likely to cope with extreme ecological shocks, now and into the future.

Methodology

The ETR includes the most recent and respected scientific research on

population growth, water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones,

and rising temperature. In addition, the report uses IEP's Positive Peace

framework to identify areas where the resilience is unlikely to be strong

enough to adapt or cope with these future shocks. The report draws on a wide

variety of data sources, including World Bank, World Resources Institute, Food

and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations, the United Nations Human

Rights Council, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, The Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, International Organization for Migration, and IEP.

About the Institute for Economics & Peace

IEP is an international and independent think tank dedicated to shifting the

world's focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human

well-being and progress. It has offices in Sydney, Brussels, New York, The

Hague, Mexico City and Harare.

SOURCE: Institute For Economics and Peace