Shell Celebrates 40 Years of Scenarios

AsiaNet 51407

THE HAGUE, The Netherlands, Nov. 19 /PRN=KYODO JBN/ --

    Scenario planning helps Shell make critical business decisions

    Forty years ago, in 1972, work began on what many people regard as the

first Shell Scenarios document, published the following year, though the roots

of this work lie even further in the past. Since then, scenario planning has

been at the heart of Shell's business, developing senior leadership

understanding of critical factors in the business environment and the possible

directions which economic, geopolitical and social systems could take, decades

into the future.

    In the last four decades, Shell Scenario planners have highlighted many key

world trends and discontinuities, ensuring that Shell as a business has been

able to plan for several eventualities and maintain business continuity through

even the most turbulent times. For example, the original Scenarios helped

Shell's leaders to prepare for the possibility of an oil price shock - a

prescient move given the Yom Kippur war, which broke out in October 1973.

    Jeremy Bentham, Shell's Vice President, Global Business Environment, said:

"Ever since our Scenarios programme began forty years ago, we have been

creating and applying many different scenarios to anticipate global and local

economic, social and political changes and how they could affect our business.

    "Looking to the future, our scenario planners are now developing a new

angle to their work, which recognises the even more complex nature of the

modern world. It will provide clarity and insights by zooming in on specific

details, then zooming out to give a broader perspective."

    The next iteration of the Shell Scenarios, to be published in early 2013,

will focus on areas that are fundamental to the development of energy and

environmental systems in the 21st century. These include the connection between

energy, water and food systems and the impact of growing global urbanisation.

    To mark this major anniversary, we are publishing '40 Years of Shell

Scenarios', a reminder of our Scenarios work over many years with illustrations

of how scenario planning has had a positive impact on the world in a variety of

areas.

    Speaking ahead of a panel discussion to coincide with the booklet's launch

today, Simon Henry, Shell's Chief Financial Officer, said: "Shell has a long

and distinguished history of scenario planning, and the intelligence and

innovation that our Scenarios teams have contributed over many decades has

proved hugely beneficial to our business. By providing unique insights and

detailed analysis into the ever-changing global landscape, and projecting

forward possible outcomes, the Scenarios team helps Shell's senior leadership

make better informed decisions about our current and future operations."

    The Shell Scenarios methodology has been adapted by many different

organisations and individuals worldwide to help them in their work.

    Adam Kahane, Associate Fellow at the Said Business School, Oxford

University said: "The Shell methodology has been one of the main building

blocks for the 'transformative scenario planning' work that my colleagues and I

have been engaged in for the past twenty years. The spirit of Shell's scenario

practice - logical and rigorous, creative and open - has guided us throughout."

    Peter Ho, Senior Advisor for the Centre of Strategic Futures, a think-tank

of the Singapore Government, said: "The Singapore Government started using

scenario planning in 1991. Shell strongly supported this effort. Today,

scenario planning is embedded in the Government's annual strategic planning

cycle."

    Philip Bobbit, Herbert Wechsler Professor of Jurisprudence at Columbia

University and Director of Columbia Law School's Center on National Security,

said: "One thing that's always impressed me about the Shell people was that

they did a whole new set of scenarios every five years, sometimes even less.

Yet if you look at all their old scenarios, they are almost uncanny in showing

how the world would change. Scenario planning is perhaps the most important

analytical tool we have and Shell has been the most important innovator in that

process."

    Amory Levins, Chairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute, said:

"Shell Scenarios are a unique resource for all of us who think about the energy

future. Shell is the most far-sighted and strategic of the majors, largely

because the Scenarios informed the thinking of Shell leadership and many others

in the energy ecosystem. Without this exercise, people would have a much

shorter and dimmer view of the future than they need to in a very long lead

time business."

    Notes to Editors:

    For more information about Shell Scenarios, and to download '40 Years of

Shell Scenarios', visit

http://www.shell.com/home/content/future_energy/scenarios/40_years.

    Royal Dutch Shell plc is incorporated in England and Wales, has its

headquarters in The Hague and is listed on the London, Amsterdam and New York

stock exchanges. Shell companies have operations in more than 80 countries and

territories with businesses including oil and gas exploration and production;

production and marketing of liquefied natural gas and gas to liquids;

manufacturing, marketing and shipping of oil products and chemicals and

renewable energy projects. For further information, visit http://www.shell.com.

    This press release contains forward-looking statements concerning the

financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell.

All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed

to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of

future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and

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There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal

Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those

expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this press release,

including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural

gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d)

drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market

share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks

associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties

and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions;

(i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to

international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments

including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and

financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political

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projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in

trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this press

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contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue

reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect

future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell's 20-F for the year ended

December 31, 2011 (available at http://www.shell.com/investor and

http://www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader.

Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this press

release, 19 November 2012. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its

subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any

forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or

other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially

from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements

contained in this press release.

    CONTACT: Shell International Media Relations

             +44(0)20-7934-5550

     SOURCE: Royal Dutch Shell plc