SasolがLake Charles Chemical Projectのガイダンスを改定

AsiaNet 78870（0922）

【ヨハネスブルク2019年5月22日PR Newswire＝共同通信JBN】Sasol Limitedは22日、Lake Charles Chemical Project（LCCP、レイクチャールズ・ケミカルプロジェクト）のコストと日程を評価する再検討作業を受けてLCCPガイダンスを改定した。

＊LCCPの日程は予定通りで、エチレングリコール／エチレンオキシド・ユニットは数日中に有益な操業を達成する。唯一の日程変更点はGuerbetユニットで、操業開始は2020年2月になる。2019年3月末時点で、建設作業は89%、プロジェクトは96%完成している。

＊SasolはLCCPの長期EBITDA（利払い・税引き・減価償却前利益）見通しが引き続き安定していることを確信している。

＊プロジェクトの総資本コストは、偶発要因による3億ドルを含め126億─129億ドルに増えた。資本コストの変動要因は理解されており、改定パラメーターの範囲内での達成を確実なものとするための一連の緩和措置が実施されつつある。

＊Sasolの財務諸表は十分に健全で、経営行動は財務諸表の債務軽減と資産ポートフォリオの簡素化、価値重視戦略の実行に焦点を当てている。

▽背景

Stock Exchange News Serviceが2019年2月8日公表した同社のトレーディングステートメントによると、LCCPの日程と資本コストのガイダンスが改定され、資本コストは116億─118億ドルと見積もられた。この発表を受け、フリートウッド・グロブラー化学担当執行副社長が即時にプロジェクト責任者に復帰してプロジェクト管理態勢が強化され、LCCP経営陣の構成にはいくつかの変更が加えられた。

このチームはプロジェクトのコスト予想の正確性に懸念を抱き、その結果同社が2019年4月に発表した第3四半期ビジネス・パフォーマンス・メトリックス報告は、LCCPのコストが予想の上限に張り付いていることを示した。経営陣も独立系技術・財務アドバイザーの意見を取り入れ、プロジェクト完成までのコストと日程の全面的見直しを開始した。

この見直しによってLCCP予測プロセスに関する新たな問題点と総予想コストの大幅上昇が判明した。見直しはまた、2018年12月31日時点のプロジェクトの実際の支出を109億ドルとしたのは正確で完全であると確認した。プロジェクトの統合管理面での欠陥が明らかになり、対策がとられつつある。

取締役会は独立した外部専門家による見直し作業も依頼した。この見直しは、上記の問題の迅速な確認と報告を遅らせた可能性もある状況を対象とする。取締役会はこの見直しの結論が出次第、指摘された点に対処する適切な措置をとる。

▽プロジェクトの主要パラメーターの改定

最初の派生ユニットであるリニアポリエチレン（LLDPE）は2019年2月13日に有益な操業となり、予想通り増産を続けている。エチレングリコール（EG）ユニットも有益操業を達成し、エチレンオキシド（EO）ユニットは数日中に有益操業化が見込まれる。エタンクラッカーの有益操業見通しは引き続き2019年7月である。その他のLCCP有益操業の日程は、最後の派生プラント（Guerbetユニット）を除いて、2019年2月に示した通りである。Guerbetユニットは予定より1カ月後の2020年2月となる見込みだ。2019年3月末時点でプロジェクト全体は96%が完成、建設は89%完成、プロジェクトの資本支出は114億ドルに上った。

上記の見直しに従ってLCCPのコスト見積もりは、偶発要因の3億ドルを含めて126億─129億ドルに改定された。LCCP完成への改定コスト見積もりに影響した主な要因は、約5億3000万ドルという2019年2月時点のコスト予想との調整と、2019年2月のコスト予想に影響を与える追加イベントと残存作業（約4億7000万ドル）である。偶発要因に対する3億ドルも含まれている。

▽これまでの対策

LCCPの予想資本コストのこのような上昇は極めて遺憾である。経営陣は監督とプロジェクトの指揮、報告頻度を強化するため、2019年2月以来いくつかの改革を実行してきた。対策にはプロジェクト管理と財務機能の分離や、執行副社長をLCCPプロジェクト管理責任者に据えたことが含まれる。プロジェクトチーム内での意思決定、透明性、文書管理を改善するイニシアチブも進行中だ。新しいプロジェクトマネジメントリーダーシップはこうした問題の摘出や改善に役立っている。

経営陣がこれまでに着手した見直しと調査は、基本的な管理の欠陥がLCCPに限定されていることを示している。

▽財務への影響

LCCPのコスト上昇はSasolの資本配分戦略を変えていない。この比率を財務諸表で引き下げて30%に近付け、続いて配当性向を40%に引き上げ、これらを2020年から2023に達成する計画に変更はない。この期間のLCCPの予想寄与度は、短中期の価格見通しの変化によってマイナスだった。LCCP操業コストは立ち上げ時は若干高くなるが、それがなければ前回のガイダンスに沿っている。この結果、2022年度のEBITDAの13億ドルは約10億ドルに改定された。長期市場価格見通しは依然としてLCCPの長期EBITDA寄与が13億ドルとなることをサポートしている。エタンと製品価格の短期市場見通しは変動的なため、見通しは定期的に改定される。

先に市場に伝えたように、経営陣は詳細な資産見直し作業を実質的に完了した。このプロセスはポートフォリオ最適化戦略の中心部分を形成し、大規模な非中核資産の処分を加速できる段階に進んでいる。同社は総純価値で20億ドルを超える資産の売却を目標としよう。このプロセスでは資産価値の維持が最優先され、上記の財務評価は資産処分に依存していない。従って関連する資産処分は財務諸表での債務削減、投資ポートフォリオ簡素化、価値重視戦略遂行への重点増大をさらに支援する。

▽Sasolについて

Sasolは世界的な総合化学・エネルギー企業である。才能豊かな従業員を通じ、安全かつ持続的に顧客、株主、その他の利害関係者に優れた価値を創造する。Sasolは高度な技術を世界規模の操業施設に統合し、商品と特殊化学品、ガス・液体燃料、低炭素電力を生産、商品化している。

ソース：Sasol Limited

Sasol Limited: Update on the Lake Charles Chemical Project

PR78870

JOHANNESBURG, May 22, 2019/PRNewswire=KYODO JBN/ --

     Sasol has today updated its guidance for LCCP following a review process

to assess the project costs and schedule.

    - LCCP's schedule remains on track with the Ethylene Glycol/Ethylene Oxide

Unit due to achieve beneficial operation within days. The only revision to the

schedule is the Guerbet Unit which will now be on stream in February 2020.

As at the end of March 2019 project completion was at 96% with construction

completion at 89%.

    - Sasol remains confident that the longer term EBITDA outlook for the LCCP

remains robust.

    - The forecast total capital cost for the project has increased to $12,6 -

12,9 billion, including a $300 million contingency. The drivers of the changes

in capital costs are understood and a series of mitigating actions are being

taken to ensure delivery within the revised parameters.

    - Sasol's balance sheet is sufficiently robust and management actions are

focused on deleveraging the balance sheet, simplifying the asset portfolio and

executing our value based strategy.

    BACKGROUND

    In the Company's trading statement, released by the Stock Exchange News

Service on 8 February 2019, updated guidance was provided for LCCP's schedule

and capital costs, which were estimated in the range of $11,6 - $11,8 billion.

Following this announcement a number of changes were made to the management of

LCCP, with project accountability immediately reassigned to the Executive Vice President

of Chemicals, Fleetwood Grobler and the strengthening of our project controls organisation.

    This team became concerned regarding the accuracy of the project's cost

forecast and, as a consequence, our third quarter Business Performance Metrics

announcement in April 2019 indicated that the LCCP's cost was tracking the

upper end of the range. Management also initiated a full review of the costs

and schedule until project completion with input from independent technical and

financial advisers.

    This review identified significant additional concerns related to the LCCP

forecasting process and a marked increase in the projected total cost. The review

also confirmed that the actual project expenditure as at 31 December 2018

amounting to $10,9 billion was accurate and complete. Weaknesses in the

project's integrated controls were identified and are being remediated.

    The Board has also commissioned a review to be conducted by independent

external experts.  This review will cover the circumstances that may have delayed

the prompt identification and reporting of the above-mentioned matters.

Upon conclusion of the review the Board will take appropriate action to address

the findings.

    UPDATE ON KEY PROJECT PARAMETERS

    The first derivative unit, Linear Low Density Polyethylene (LLDPE),

achieved beneficial operation on 13 February 2019 and the plant continues to

ramp up in line with expectations. We have achieved beneficial operation of

the Ethylene Glycol unit (EG), with beneficial operation of the Ethylene Oxide

unit (EO) expected in the coming days. The Ethane Cracker is still expected to

achieve beneficial operation in July 2019. The remainder of the LCCP schedule

for beneficial operation is as previously indicated in February 2019 apart from

the beneficial operation of the last derivative plant (Guerbet unit), which is

expected to be one month later in February 2020. As of the end of March 2019,

overall project completion was at 96%, with construction completion at 89% and

capital expenditure on the project amounted to $11,4 billion.

    Following the review noted above, the cost estimate for LCCP has been revised

to a range of $12,6 - $12,9 billion which includes a contingency of $300 million.

The principal factors that impacted the revised cost estimate to complete LCCP are

adjustments to the February 2019 cost forecast of approximately $530 million and

additional events and remaining work impacting February 2019 cost forecast -

approximately $470 million. A contingency of $300 million has also been included.

    ACTIONS TAKEN TO DATE

    This increase in the anticipated LCCP capital costs is extremely disappointing.

Executive management has implemented several changes since February 2019

to further strengthen the oversight, leadership for the project and frequency of

reporting.  Actions include segregation of duties between project controls and

finance functions and assigning a Senior Vice President to have responsibility for

the LCCP project controls. Initiatives to improve decision making, transparency

and documentation within the project management team are also in progress.

The new project leadership has been instrumental in identifying and remediating these issues.

    The reviews and investigations initiated by management to date indicate

that the underlying control weaknesses are limited to LCCP.

    FINANCIAL IMPACT

    The increase in the LCCP's cost does not alter Sasol's capital allocation strategy.

The plan remains to reduce balance sheet gearing towards 30% followed

by an increase in the dividend pay-out ratio to 40% and remains on track to

occur between financial years 2020 to 2023.  Over this period the anticipated

contribution from the LCCP has been negatively impacted by a change in the

short and medium term pricing outlook. Operating costs for the LCCP, although

projected to be slightly elevated during start-up, are otherwise still in line

with previous guidance. As a result the earnings before interest, tax,

depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for financial year 2022 of $1,3 billion

have been revised to approximately $1 billion.  The long term market pricing

outlook is still in support of a long term run rate EBITDA contribution from

the LCCP of $1,3 billion.  The short term market outlook for ethane and product

pricing remains volatile and estimates will be updated periodically.

    As previously communicated to the market, management has substantially

completed the detailed asset review programme. This process forms a key part of

the portfolio optimisation strategy, and has now progressed to the stage where

the disposal of larger non-core assets can be accelerated. The Company will

target the disposal of assets which have an aggregate net asset value exceeding

$2 billion. The safeguarding value will be prioritised through this process,

and the financial metrics disclosed above do not rely on any asset disposals.

Relevant disposals will therefore further support the deleveraging of the

balance sheet, as well as simplification of the investment portfolio and

increased focus in executing our value based strategy.

    Disclaimer - Forward-looking statements

    Sasol may, in this document, make certain statements that are not

historical facts and relate to analyses and other information which are based

on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet determinable.

These statements may also relate to our future prospects, developments and

business strategies. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but

are not limited to, cost estimates and expected timing of beneficial operation

of LCCP, targets or guidance regarding our gearing ratio and dividend pay-out

ratio, net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, EBITDA and internal rate of return for LCCP,

as well as statements regarding our future liquidity, credit ratings and

non-core asset disposal strategy. Words such as "believe", "anticipate",

"expect", "intend", "seek", "will", "plan", "could", "may", "endeavour", "target",

"forecast" and "project" and similar expressions are intended to identify such

forward-looking statements, but are not the exclusive means of identifying

such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve

inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and there are risks

that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements

will not be achieved. If one or more of these risks materialise, or should underlying

assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results may differ materially from those

anticipated. You should understand that a number of important factors could cause

actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates

and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed

more fully in our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed on 28 August 2018

and in other filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

The list of factors discussed therein is not exhaustive; when relying on

forward-looking statements to make investment decisions, you should carefully

consider both these factors and other uncertainties and events. Forward-looking

statements apply only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not

undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result

of new information, future events or otherwise.

    About Sasol:

    Sasol is a global integrated chemicals and energy company. Through our

talented people,  we safely and sustainably create superior value for our customers,

shareholders and other stakeholders. We integrated sophisticated technologies in

world-scale operating facilities to produce and commercialise commodity and

specialised chemicals, gaseous and liquid fuels,  and lower-carbon electricity.

    Source: Sasol Limited