欧州中期気象予報センター (ECMWF)

2016/9/12 18:07


AsiaNet 65682(1136)

【レディング(英国)2016年9月12日PR Newswire=共同通信JBN】



欧州中期気象予報センター(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts、ECMWF)は12日に発表した新しい戦略の下で、今後10年間で高いインパクトの気象予報の確率的技術を3日間から6日間の範囲で拡大することを確約している。



















(2)2025年文書のロードマップはhttp://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/strategy で入手できる。

ソース:European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

European Medium-Range Weather Centre (ECMWF) Commits to Pushing the Limits of Predictability in 2025 Strategy


READING, England, Sep.12, 2016 /PRNewswire=KYODO JBN / --

     - Prediction of high-impact weather events to be stretched to up to 2 weeks

ahead with large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead

     - Global ensemble forecast resolution to increase by more than 3 times,

with the grid size going from 18 km down to 5 km

    Under a new Strategy announced today, the European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is committing to extending the probabilistic skill of

its high-impact weather forecasts by three to six days over the next decade.

    By 2025, ECMWF aim for high-impact weather events such as the windstorm Tor

that hit north-western Europe in January 2016 to be predictable at an average

of 10 days ahead of the event, and up to two weeks in advance. Similarly,

larger-scale pattern events, such as the heatwave that affected Europe in

July/August 2015, would be predictable at an average of three weeks ahead of

the event, and up to four weeks in advance in certain cases.

    The advances will be achieved by pushing the boundaries of research and

computing to improve ECMWF's description of the initial state of the forecast

and representation of the physical processes governing the Earth's fluid

envelope. Key to the Strategy's success will be continued international

research and computing cooperation.

    ECMWF will continue its ground-breaking work on a new coupled data

assimilation system to ensure the generation of a consistent Earth system state

to initialise forecasts across all timescales.

    ECMWF's new strategic objectives include:

    - Increasing the horizontal resolution of the global 'ensemble' forecasting

system to 5 km, more than three times the existing resolution.

     - Developing an improved, high-resolution Earth system model to better

take into account the complex interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean,

sea ice and land, as well as aerosols and ozone.

     - Implementing a scalable approach to coding across numerical weather

prediction (NWP) processes to meet future computing power and big data


    ECMWF Director General Florence Rabier said:

    "Our 2025 ambition raises the international bar. Given the greater

likelihood of life-threatening climate change impacts on the Earth's weather,

we will harness rapidly advancing data availability and technology to stretch

the accuracy and range of predictions further and faster.

    "ECMWF is a shining example of the value of European and global cooperation

in the scientific field, and one which has tangible benefits day in, day out

for dozens of national economies and millions of people's daily lives."

    The improved forecasts will mean more advance notice of high-impact weather

events such as windstorms, floods and heatwaves, enabling national

meteorological and emergency services to better protect lives and property.

    In addition, global-scale anomalies - such as El Nino - would be

predictable up to a year ahead.

    Such advances will require fundamentally new scientific and computational

methods, delivered by harnessing international expertise and resources.

    ECMWF will also continue to provide a high-performance computing facility

that allows the benefits of innovation to be realised in an energy-efficient

and environmentally sustainable way.

    ECMWF was established in 1975 as an independent intergovernmental

organisation. It provides the data and services needed by the national

meteorological services in its 34 Member and Co-operating States to provide the

public with accurate weather forecast information.

    Over the past 40 years, ECMWF has established itself as a leader in the

field of weather forecasting. With its advanced supercomputing capability, it

assimilates an average of 40 million observations a day from more than 70

satellite instruments. It works in close collaboration with meteorological

organisations within its Member and Co-operating States, and beyond.

    Notes to editors:

      1. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an

independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 states, established

in 1975. ECMWF's core mission is to produce numerical weather forecasts, carry

out scientific and technical research to improve forecast skill, and to

maintain an archive of meteorological data.

      2. The Roadmap to 2025 document is available here:


SOURCE: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)